Sunday, 7 June 2009

Risk, reward and possible trading strategies.



Firstly I'm thinking of changing the rule about the initial potential reward to risk being at least 2:1. I feel that at least 1.5:1 will allow enough freedom to trade without allowing too much rubbish through the filter, if the reward is below 20pts then the nearer it is to 20 the better

Most people who follow my posts on the iii UKX board know that I like to split my trades. When I got to the stage where I could afford to enter with double the minimum stake allowed, I could not believe the extra freedom it gave me.

All my initial S/L goes at a point decided by the shape on Price.

If the trade immediately reverses then I'll phase out half at the first possible S/L above the original and leave the rest to survive or die.

If the trade moves my way, I'll shift up half to that same S/L, leaving the rest behind.

Next shift will be the moved one, shifted up again to B/E.

After that there are just too many possibilities to go through in detail.

If I have an effective free trade, running half from -x with x locked in then I'm happy.

If I can get where I'm being "paid to trade", then so much the better i.e. half at B/E and half with some locked in.

The other lines on the image are there to act as mental triggers.

If a bounce off the middle Bollinger line is expected and it does so, then why get caught out, maybe grab some with half?

If the opposite Bollinger Band is where some resistance ought to be expected, then why get caught out when it does, maybe grab some with half of what's left?

The last sentence implies I now use more than double the minimum, which is correct.

cheers theory

6 comments:

  1. is a WM made up of 3 points?

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  2. nearlythere,
    I suggest you re-read Stage 1. There can be more than 3 BUT 3 of them do define Pts 1,2 & 3 as in the diagrams.
    cheers theory

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  3. is the entry always at your point 2 and out at point 3

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  4. I am now confused. I have just gone on the ukx board and you are trading a 14 min, I thought 15 the minimum on this system

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  5. nearly there,

    I believe this is covered in the various diagrams. When looking make sure you find the label saying RSI or Price.

    Entry is at RSI of Pt2 +1 for a W and -1 for an M. The reason for the 1 extra is explained in the notes.

    Exit is somewhere below the Lowest level for a W and above the highest level for an M, on Price.

    S/L placement is personal, there are various alternatives to consider, choose the one which suits you as a trader.

    The 15 min is a guideline, not a rule. My personal preference is for 15 min+ BUT when the 14 min reveals a pattern like that then I'm in.

    Look at it in terms of reward:risk ratio compared to probability of successs. The shorter the timeframe the less likely it is to turn into a winning trade [ becomes more ssusceptible to market noise] BUT if the reward:ratio is so good then it warrants a trade.

    I might go down to 13 min, if there was one almost there on 16 or 17. I won't go down to 12 but others do, even as low as 10 min.

    cheers theory

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  6. nearlythere,
    Just checked through the blogs.
    Guideline rather than rule is covered in Stage 4 under the heading "Ideal trade?"

    Entry on RSI is shown in Stage 1, diagram on right, the writing in green goes with the line in green.

    Exit/failure on Price is shown in Stage 6, diagram writing in red goes with line in red.

    Hope this clarifies the points you have raised.

    cheers theory

    ReplyDelete