Friday 29 May 2009

Stage 2 - RSI levels for trend reversal or continuation.


Trend reversal RSI patterns fit into 4 distinct groups. It is the level of Pt1, and Pt1 alone, which decides the category they are put into.

For a trend reversal W, basically it's the lower the better in terms of deciding the probability of delivering a B/E trade.

Group A, highest % chance Pt1 has RSI less than 30.
Group B, next highest % chance Pt1 has RSI greater than 30 but less than 35.
Group C, even less % chance Pt1 has RSI greater than 35 but less than 40.
Group D, least % chance Pt1 has RSI greater than 40 but less than anything you want.

For a trend reversal M, basically it's the higher the better in terms of deciding the probability of delivering a B/E trade.

Group A, highest % chance Pt1 has RSI greater than 70.
Group B, next highest % chance Pt1 has RSI greater than 65 but less than 70.
Group C, even less % chance Pt1 has RSI greater than 60 but less than 65.
Group D, least % chance Pt1 has RSI greater than whatever you want but less than 60.

Trend continuation WMs are totally different.

At NO stage were they ever the opposite shape and then they changed back within the triggering candle.

In terms of Price action, they are non-threatening retracements within the original trend.

cheers theory

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